Update on North Korea Situation

[cocoinkorea]

I asked my friend in the military what the current situation was amid rumors I had been hearing of families getting sent back home.

He confirmed the information that military families are getting sent back home and were told to pick up their gas masks.

I wonder if this means there is reason to worry?

[WorkingTitle3484]

Don't worry about it.  It's a military precaution, yet not one to disturb civilian life.  This unfortunately happens ALL the time.

[rainesbaines]

Is your friend Korean or American?  And do you mean people are getting sent back home overseas?

[cocoinkorea]

My friend is American. Yes, back home... to America.

[mcluther2112]

I think that Skorean has become very desencitized to the Nkorean military threats.
But any eldery SKorean will tell you whats up.

I think its something to take seriously.  Watch the news daily, listen to local Korean radion stations, and I would keep a small bag or two packed with some food, med-kit, extra clothes, etc. 

North Korean military is stubborn, sneaky, desperate, heartless, unfair, and most of all to close to Seoul.

[cberg]

From Vice's Atlas Hoods:

"Most people get it now that Korea is split in two: one half is evil while the other makes great flat screen TVs. You’ll also probably be aware that they’re separated by the most heavily fortified, militarized border in the world, making weekend city breaks to Pyongyang quite difficult. What few people know, however, is that there’s another Korea, west of the famous two. This third Korea is where the worlds of North and South meet head-on in a weird capitalist/communist clusterfuck overseen by the Chinese. Ever wanted to visit Kim Jong-il’s birthplace while drinking Starbucks, listening to K-Pop, and not getting shot? West Korea’s your place."

Read on: http://www.viceland.com/blogs/en/2011/04/06/atlas-hoods-the-third-korea/

[Ryanh856]

So has the situation with North Korea stabilized at this point, or should we still be worried about living in South Korea? Anybody have any updated information on the situation that they would be willing to share?

[crawlingkingsnake]

We're doomed.

[camaroclow]

It's quite safe. I wouldn't worry about it.

[airdrieboy1984]

Read the news.... newsnow.co.uk and type in 'korea'...

[heyitslep]

It's been pretty touch and go.

Just this past week I had to tackle and shield some students from a rogue North Korea grenade. I tell ya, war is hell.

[jgroh]

Okay, I have no problem with Ryan asking this question. I do have a problem with it becoming a joke.

The situation between the two Koreas has been back and forth for the last sixty years. Some times worse than others. Here's my deal. Being in South Korea, I sleep well at night and would gladly resign my contract. That said, things have been the most tense they've been in a good 30 years.

A few noteworthy ones:
-58: Busan to Seoul airplane hijacked and rerouted to Pyongyang.
- late '60s: constant back and forth skirmishes. (around 700-800 deaths)
- '68: NK failed assassination attempt in attacking the Blue House (S.Korea's version of the White House).
- '68: USS Pueblo captured.
- '74: President Park Chung Hee's wife killed during assassination attempt.
- '74: first DMZ tunnel found: estimates on size: 2,000 north korean soldiers per hour.
- '75: second DMZ tunnel found: 30,000 troops per hour. wide enough for tanks, field artillery, etc.
- '76: Axe murder incident at Panmunjom
- '78: third DMZ tunnel found: roughly same as #2. next to vital defense line.
- 70s and 80s: famous actresses and film directors kidnapped to make propaganda films.
- '90: fourth DMZ tunnel found: nearly identical to #2 and #3. 30,000 troops per hour.
- it goes on and on and on.
- others:  90s and 00s: nuclear development (this is very simplistic).

North Korea is a master in the game of international engagement. Enrage everyone so much, apologize (or don't), seek concessions, bargain and compromise, get aid packages, and repeat. With the sinking of the Cheonan, a lot of people died in a very confrontational way. Still, it was at night and they could deny it. With the shelling on Yeongpyeong-do, not that many people died, but it was in broad daylight and the North obviously started it (though they'll argue that one).

If you want a good primer, check out National Geographic's Inside North Korea.
http://thepiratebay.org/torrent/6110419/National_Geographic_Explorer___Inside_North_Korea___Arcus
If you have an IP anonymizer (like Hotspot shield), you can find it on youtube. (N.Geographic blocks international access to some of their youtube videos otherwise).

All of this to say, I am far more concerned about the humanitarian crisis in North Korea than I am about a prospect of a nuclear North Korea. People have this idea that concentration camps ended in the 40s, but they didn't. Here's a video of Shin Dong Hyeok speaking at a Google Tech Talk. He's the only known survivor to have ever made it out alive of a total-control grade concentration camp in North Korea. If you watch anything of the 1:06 minutes, the first 30 minutes is critical. So powerful and so needed.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ms4NIB6xroc

too long? watch that youtube video.

And for news:
http://www.dailynk.com/english/
http://nknews.org/

[Spongeblob]

It's always the most calm before the biggest storm. 
It's pretty good living here but ... somedays you feel like there is another shoe about to drop ...
right ...
on ...
top ...
of ...
you.   
Nah, other than radiation, nuclear war, yellow sandstorms, typhoons and bad kimchi it's all good.

[heyitslep]

I wonder to what extent we're allowed to post on the subject before you get a phone call or a knock on your door? In any event, I'm erring on the side of caution today.

OP, everything's fine. You 100% have more to fear from an ajuma on the move than NK.

[Trouble_Teacher]

I actually study the North Korean issue quite a bit (personal hobby and naturally a vested interest).

Anyone who says that everything is just fine has no idea what they are talking about. You should still go about your day as normal, but don't pretend like the threat isn't there. It's like saying sharks no longer attack people because one hasn't attacked in several months. It's ok to swim, just know that there's a small chance of danger.

Long story short: North Korea is still a big threat and all of the events of the last year or two have increase that threat in a way that events of the past did not.

The information age (with the internet) has also made every even far more potent than those before, regardless of how serious each even is or was. The sinking of the Cheonan was a pretty serious blow, but it wasn't very different from attacks in the past. There have been several naval clashes over the decades, so that was seen as not such a huge deal since each incident was so easily contained and confined to the seas. With the shelling of Yeungpyung-do, the game changed significantly and anyone who says it didn't just doesn't understand the situation. Yes, we were VERY close to going to war in November. If the North had fired one shot like it said it would, then there would have been a spiral of retaliatory attacks that would have led to all out war. The situation in the Korean peninsula is one of those situations that would be impossible to calm down once it gets going because both sides are so ready for an attack that they already have massive responses planned and prepped.

So it's several months later, and it doesn't seem like we are that close anymore, but I contend that we are still very much that close. It's not like I'm saying war would happen next week. There's no way to tell. But the South Korean military is now on a hair trigger because of the November attacks. They will respond swiftly and harshly to any future attacks. And they should. No country should sit there and let itself be violently pushed without defending itself. If it leads to war, then it will be the North Koreans who instigated it, so it will be a defensive war.

But will North Korea make another attack? I think it's only a matter of time. They have some very serious issues going on at home. They have a terrible famine. They have an uncertain succession. And they are getting hit hard by sanctions. Their Juche system leaves them with very little options to deal with the famine. They've already tried begging for food from the rest of the world, but apparently that didn't work. In the past they would use military provocations as a means for bilking South Korea for aid. They might think they can still use that, but I think they would be wrong. They might feel confident that the South won't risk retaliating because now North Korea "has nukes", but they aren't the huge threat everyone thinks they are. They probably don't even have a means of delivery yet. And they would never use them unless they were about to lose a war, because they would just invite the US to nuke the crap out of them. Then, of course, there's the politics surrounding the succession. The boy-king Kim Jong-un has to make himself into a tough guy very quickly if he is going to control the generals. It's possible he may need to make yet more orders for attacks in order to secure his place. It's also possible that, if he is perceived as weak, generals might make attacks on their own accord to fulfill their desires for glory and/or war.

Regardless of all that, the North Korean economy is in shambles and they won't be able to operate as a government for many years more. They are coming into their endgame, and I would be mighty surprised if their plans for such an even didn't include an all out last ditch effort to conquer the South and unify Korea under their leadership. Even if they do collapse before that could happen, the generals then could simply take it upon themselves to try and do it.

The six party talks that are coming up (again) are, predictably, going to get nowhere and fast. All the US and South Korea want is for the North to get rid of its nukes and nuclear program, but they simply can't do that. It's the pinnacle of their national defense, which is what their entire regime has been built upon. If Kim Jong-un allows the US and South to take away that, he will be seen as weak, or even as inviting attack, which will cause serious problems. So I think they are just playing nice in an effort to get some kind of aid. They will then torpedo the talks when the US and South Korea insist on them giving up the nukes, and they will blame the US and South Korea for the failure of the talks, probably saying something like "all they want is war, so we will give it to them!" After that, North Korea will be in a position where they can justify another pinprick military attack. Will they do it? I think they probably will, but who knows? And who knows when it would occur?

I think everyone living in Korea should be worried about the potential. I think too many Koreans aren't worried enough, probably because they just don't know enough about it or they have been conditioned for so long to not be worried that they can't be even when they should. At the same time, however, you can't let it rule your life. Continue on with your life as normal. But you should know exactly what you need to do if that event should occur. There's information out there about the evacuation plans for foreigners of various nationalities. It would be wise to know where you need to go in that event, just like it's wise to know where the fire exit is, or where the tsunami evacuation route is. Maybe you will never need to use it, maybe you will. If you suddenly need it and don't have it, that might be a mistake that costs you your life.

[cragesmure]

I honestly don't think any place is safe.
I hail from America which is suddenly full of concentration camps (something like 800 of 'em) and millions of black plastic coffins and a bird/swine flu shot that is designed to cause paralysis and death. we take take our chances daily with wherever we live. terrorist attacks can happen anywhere. The division between North and South was engineered (as was Germany's) and those who engineered it know that eventually the division may crumble and cause the chaos they want. I just look to and pray to God daily and I know that with His hand upon my life, things will go as they should. there is nothing else I can do about it. We can live in peace or anxiety. its our choice. but is "home" any safer than any other place?

Wha...wha....huh???

[Artist Formerly Known as Moderator Jason]

I honestly don't think any place is safe.
I hail from America which is suddenly full of concentration camps (something like 800 of 'em) and millions of black plastic coffins and a bird/swine flu shot that is designed to cause paralysis and death. we take take our chances daily with wherever we live. terrorist attacks can happen anywhere. The division between North and South was engineered (as was Germany's) and those who engineered it know that eventually the division may crumble and cause the chaos they want. I just look to and pray to God daily and I know that with His hand upon my life, things will go as they should. there is nothing else I can do about it. We can live in peace or anxiety. its our choice. but is "home" any safer than any other place?

Wha...wha....huh???

  Umn......Merryone where are you coming from on this? 

[leejs]

I don't know where you're getting your information from, but there is not now, nor have there ever been concentration camps, anywhere in America. And although there are some shady parts to the Patriot Act, there haven't been any loss of freedom. I won't try to argue about the vaccine, simply because your statement is so far out there it makes even Jenny McCarthy seem mildly sane.

Lastly, America may or may not be safer than South Korea, I grant you that. As far as I know there is far more crime and murders in America than in Korea. But in America you don't have to worry about any government (foreign or domestic) coming after you with a massive army and possibly nukes.

Yes, we can chose our realities, and yours bears no resemblance whatsoever to actual reality.

[Merryone]

each to his own.

[sungsaneem]

I don't agree with Merryone but to leejs response about U.S never having concentration camps. What about the Japanese during WWII?